PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 248, Trump 290 FBI refers to the reopening of the investigation and the impact of it. Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger. State of Florida Prediction: Trump 49.3, Clinton 45.8, Johnson 3.9, Stein 1.0 Polls Only - Trump +0.5 Sample bias - Trump +2.0 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.5 Late breaking - Trump +3.5 Ohio -Prediction: Trump 50.4, Clinton 46.1, Johnson 2.6, Stein 0.9 North Carolina -Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.6, Johnson 3.0, Stein 1.9
But FiveThirtyEight’s models and betting markets give Trump about a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election, about the same chance as the Chicago Cubs have of winning the World Series.
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